{
  "name": "Edge-probability ledger \u2014 every recorded action in the problem graph",
  "snapshot": "2026-10-26",
  "rule": "Every action records a probability before it is attempted (prob + probNote), or carries an explicit probStatus. not_recorded_historical = attempt completed before this rule existed; its prior is never reconstructed. pending_delphi = route still open; Delphi-score it before further work. structural = navigation edge, not a solution attempt.",
  "graph_url": "https://fractastical.github.io/morpholib/problem-graph.html",
  "counts_by_status": {
    "structural": 17,
    "not_recorded_historical": 37,
    "pending_delphi": 18,
    "provisional_scored": 33,
    "delphi_scored": 14,
    "registered_prediction": 14
  },
  "edges": [
    {
      "from": "root",
      "to": "t1",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Thompson 1917 paradox"
    },
    {
      "from": "root",
      "to": "f1",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Flagship models 1917\u20132021"
    },
    {
      "from": "root",
      "to": "r0",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Conus textile shell"
    },
    {
      "from": "root",
      "to": "l1",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Zhang sorting (2025)"
    },
    {
      "from": "root",
      "to": "b1",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ca\u00b2\u207a wave-vector pipeline"
    },
    {
      "from": "t1",
      "to": "t2",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "fit outlines, not landmarks",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "600-point outline fit"
    },
    {
      "from": "t1",
      "to": "t2",
      "agent": "wainwright",
      "label": "challenge: beat TPS/EFD",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "600-point outline fit"
    },
    {
      "from": "t2",
      "to": "t3",
      "agent": "human",
      "label": "challenge: is it just box stretch?",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "Box-stretch illusion"
    },
    {
      "from": "t3",
      "to": "t4",
      "agent": "gemini",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "~50 Myr horizon"
    },
    {
      "from": "t2",
      "to": "t4",
      "agent": "gemini",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "~50 Myr horizon"
    },
    {
      "from": "t4",
      "to": "t5",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Prediction engine"
    },
    {
      "from": "t5",
      "to": "t6",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "hash-lock then unblind",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "FishShapes blind test"
    },
    {
      "from": "t6",
      "to": "t7",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Multi-clade portfolio"
    },
    {
      "from": "t7",
      "to": "t8",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "priors locked 1da6218f",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Why wings? (causal)"
    },
    {
      "from": "t8",
      "to": "t9",
      "agent": "gemini",
      "label": "Antscan 2026 + Scholtz 2020 crabs",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "1917 Crabs & Ant Castes"
    },
    {
      "from": "t8",
      "to": "t9",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "blinded referee audit (f\u2081<0, LOO-CV, F-test)",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "1917 Crabs & Ant Castes"
    },
    {
      "from": "t1",
      "to": "t4",
      "agent": "human",
      "label": "challenge: beyond 791 spp?",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "~50 Myr horizon"
    },
    {
      "from": "f1",
      "to": "f2",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "116-model closed loop"
    },
    {
      "from": "f2",
      "to": "f3",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": "dual referees",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Pass N+1 honest re-score"
    },
    {
      "from": "f2",
      "to": "f3",
      "agent": "gpt",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Pass N+1 honest re-score"
    },
    {
      "from": "f2",
      "to": "f3",
      "agent": "grok",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Pass N+1 honest re-score"
    },
    {
      "from": "f2",
      "to": "f3",
      "agent": "gemini",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Pass N+1 honest re-score"
    },
    {
      "from": "f2",
      "to": "f3",
      "agent": "sonnet",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Pass N+1 honest re-score"
    },
    {
      "from": "f1",
      "to": "f4",
      "agent": "human",
      "label": "PI: is there something we can prove or resolve?",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "BMP pair-equivalence test"
    },
    {
      "from": "f1",
      "to": "f4",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": "logged test run 2026-10-26: REFUTED",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "BMP pair-equivalence test"
    },
    {
      "from": "f4",
      "to": "b6",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": "verdict + evidence log feed the KG",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Knowledge graph + nanopubs"
    },
    {
      "from": "f1",
      "to": "f5",
      "agent": "human",
      "label": "PI: frame as a claim, publish either way",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "Cow Turing claim \u2014 tested"
    },
    {
      "from": "f2",
      "to": "f5",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": "9-pass loop (builder Muse Wonder)",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "Cow Turing claim \u2014 tested"
    },
    {
      "from": "f2",
      "to": "f5",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "blinded audits 54.4 / 57.7 overturned 2 conclusions",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "Cow Turing claim \u2014 tested"
    },
    {
      "from": "f1",
      "to": "la06",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "LA06-01 Dpp scaling prediction",
      "prob_percent": 86,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior for LA06-01 confirmation (86.3%, prior 50 +8dB) -- NOT a panel score; scored outcome: partially_resolved",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "LA-06 Dpp scaling \u2014 scored"
    },
    {
      "from": "f5",
      "to": "b6",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": "negative claim + assessments nanopublished (prod)",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Knowledge graph + nanopubs"
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    {
      "from": "r0",
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      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Diagonal coordinates"
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    {
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      "prob_percent": null,
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Phase I \u00b7 Thm 1\u20135"
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      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Phases II\u2013IV \u00b7 Thm 6\u201319"
    },
    {
      "from": "r3",
      "to": "r4",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Thm 20\u201347 expansion"
    },
    {
      "from": "r4",
      "to": "r5",
      "agent": "human",
      "label": "\"not really Problem 1\"",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "\u224815 h: honest reckoning"
    },
    {
      "from": "r5",
      "to": "r6",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": "Delphi pooled",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Bayesian Delphi panel"
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    {
      "from": "r5",
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      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
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      "target_status": "solved",
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      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Bayesian Delphi panel"
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    {
      "from": "r5",
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      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Bayesian Delphi panel"
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    {
      "from": "r6",
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      "agent": "human",
      "label": "armed overnight loop",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "Overnight loop Thm 48\u201364"
    },
    {
      "from": "r7",
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      "agent": "human",
      "label": "\"burning compute\" \u2192 stop, prune",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Prune to core 47\u201352"
    },
    {
      "from": "r7",
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      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "referee audit caught drift",
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      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Prune to core 47\u201352"
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    {
      "from": "r3",
      "to": "p1",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Prize 1 \u00b7 Aperiodicity"
    },
    {
      "from": "r4",
      "to": "p1",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
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      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Prize 1 \u00b7 Aperiodicity"
    },
    {
      "from": "r4",
      "to": "p2",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Prize 2 \u00b7 Density \u00bd"
    },
    {
      "from": "r4",
      "to": "p3",
      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Prize 3 \u00b7 \u03a9(n) complexity"
    },
    {
      "from": "r6",
      "to": "p1",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 11.52,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "Delphi pooled bridge posterior (Prize 1)",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Prize 1 \u00b7 Aperiodicity"
    },
    {
      "from": "r6",
      "to": "p2",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 2.03,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "Delphi pooled bridge posterior (Prize 2)",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Prize 2 \u00b7 Density \u00bd"
    },
    {
      "from": "r6",
      "to": "p3",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 0.04,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "Delphi pooled bridge posterior (Prize 3)",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Prize 3 \u00b7 \u03a9(n) complexity"
    },
    {
      "from": "f5",
      "to": "b6",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": "OP-11 route: re-score + migration-wave \u2192 superseding assessment",
      "prob_percent": 39.3,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "Delphi pooled posterior, OP-11 path (panel 13.6-75.0%)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Knowledge graph + nanopubs"
    },
    {
      "from": "f1",
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      "agent": "gemini",
      "label": "Conus is a flagship",
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Conus textile shell"
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    {
      "from": "l1",
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      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Platonic-space audit"
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    {
      "from": "l2",
      "to": "l3",
      "agent": "sonnet",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "Causal Emergence guide"
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    {
      "from": "l2",
      "to": "l4",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Levin latent-space verdict"
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    {
      "from": "l4",
      "to": "l5",
      "agent": "panel",
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      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Planform multiway DPO"
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    {
      "from": "l4",
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      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ruliobiology"
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    {
      "from": "f2",
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      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ruliobiology"
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    {
      "from": "b1",
      "to": "b2",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": "register \u2192 score",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "Xenopus blind test"
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    {
      "from": "b2",
      "to": "b3",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Pixel blind v1 + v2"
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    {
      "from": "b1",
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      "agent": "panel",
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      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
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      "target_label": "Zebrafish blind test"
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    {
      "from": "b1",
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      "agent": "unattributed",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "pending_delphi",
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Bioelectric prepattern"
    },
    {
      "from": "t6",
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      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "same hash-lock contract",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Knowledge graph + nanopubs"
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    {
      "from": "f2",
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      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
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      "target_status": "solved",
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    {
      "from": "r8",
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      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "not_recorded_historical",
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      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Knowledge graph + nanopubs"
    },
    {
      "from": "root",
      "to": "pred0",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
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      "target_status": "root",
      "target_label": "Registered predictions"
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    {
      "from": "pred0",
      "to": "pred-meta",
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      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Meta-resolvability 2/4"
    },
    {
      "from": "f4",
      "to": "pred-danio",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "BMP evidence base",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Danio rerio"
    },
    {
      "from": "b4",
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      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "zebrafish programme",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
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      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Danio rerio"
    },
    {
      "from": "b2",
      "to": "pred-xenopus",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "xenopus programme",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Xenopus tropicalis"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred0",
      "to": "pred-danio",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Danio rerio"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-danio",
      "to": "ZF-TUR-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 60.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "ZF-TUR-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-danio",
      "to": "ZF-TUR-02",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 85.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "ZF-TUR-02"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-danio",
      "to": "ZF-HH-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 70.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "ZF-HH-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-danio",
      "to": "ZF-CLK-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 55.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "ZF-CLK-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-danio",
      "to": "ZF-VTX-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 40.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "ZF-VTX-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred0",
      "to": "pred-drosophila",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Drosophila melanogaster"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-drosophila",
      "to": "DM-WG-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 85.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "DM-WG-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-drosophila",
      "to": "DM-HH-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 80.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "DM-HH-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-drosophila",
      "to": "DM-DPP-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 95.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "DM-DPP-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-drosophila",
      "to": "DM-CLK-NEG-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 90.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "DM-CLK-NEG-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-drosophila",
      "to": "DM-MUR-NEG-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 45.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "DM-MUR-NEG-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred0",
      "to": "pred-xenopus",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Xenopus tropicalis"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-xenopus",
      "to": "XT-BMP-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 85.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "XT-BMP-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-xenopus",
      "to": "XT-SHH-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 75.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "XT-SHH-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-xenopus",
      "to": "XT-DQ-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 99.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "XT-DQ-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "pred-xenopus",
      "to": "XT-CLK-01",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 50.0,
      "prob_status": "registered_prediction",
      "prob_note": "Registered resolvability confidence, predictions/prediction_registry.json (recorded 2026-10-26 before scoring)",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "XT-CLK-01"
    },
    {
      "from": "t1",
      "to": "t-claims",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "59-claim registry",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Thompson 1917 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-0",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 5%",
      "prob_percent": 5.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (0 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. I \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-1",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 5%",
      "prob_percent": 5.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (0 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. I \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-2",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 4 claims (4 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. II \u00b7 4 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-3",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 4 claims (4 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. III \u00b7 4 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-4",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 2 claims (2 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. IV \u00b7 2 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-5",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 77.5%",
      "prob_percent": 77.5,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 4 claims (3 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. V \u00b7 4 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-6",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 5%",
      "prob_percent": 5.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (0 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. VI \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-7",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 3 claims (3 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. VII \u00b7 3 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-8",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 2 claims (2 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. VIII \u00b7 2 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-9",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 2 claims (2 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. IX \u00b7 2 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-10",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 35%",
      "prob_percent": 35.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (0 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Ch. IX-X \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-11",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 10%",
      "prob_percent": 10.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (0 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Ch. X \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-12",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 2 claims (2 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. XI \u00b7 2 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-13",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 70%",
      "prob_percent": 70.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 2 claims (1 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. XII \u00b7 2 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-14",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (1 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. XIII \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-15",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (1 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. XIII \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-16",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 100%",
      "prob_percent": 100.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (1 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "Ch. XIV \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-17",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 67.5%",
      "prob_percent": 67.5,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 2 claims (1 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. XV \u00b7 2 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-18",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 75%",
      "prob_percent": 75.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 3 claims (2 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. XVI \u00b7 3 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-19",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 15%",
      "prob_percent": 15.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (0 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. XVII \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-20",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 91.3%",
      "prob_percent": 91.3,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 19 claims (16 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. XVII \u00b7 19 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "t-claims",
      "to": "tch-21",
      "agent": "wonder",
      "label": "P(resolve) 5%",
      "prob_percent": 5.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "P(resolvable) = mean of per-claim rubric scores for this chapter's 1 claims (0 already resolved at 100%), scored 2026-10-27 by thompson/score_1917_resolvability.py over dataset-existence/automation/effort. Deterministic rubric pricing resolvability, NOT a Delphi posterior and NOT P(Thompson was right). Per-claim ledger: thompson/thompson_1917_resolvability.json.",
      "target_status": "partial",
      "target_label": "Ch. Epilogue \u00b7 1 claims"
    },
    {
      "from": "f3",
      "to": "tu0",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "forward from the Turing flagship debt",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Turing open problems (1952 \u2192)"
    },
    {
      "from": "f5",
      "to": "tu0",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": "generalise the cow null",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "Turing open problems (1952 \u2192)"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "tu-panel",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": "blinded 3-provider panel",
      "prob_percent": null,
      "prob_status": "structural",
      "prob_note": null,
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "3-provider Delphi panel"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-07",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 50.0,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net +0 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 78/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "TOP-07 \u00b7 rd to ca reduction"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-07",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 77.3,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 71.53%, Gemini 4 Argon 79.92%, Claude Fable 5.1 79.92%), prior 50%, net +5.33 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 89.7/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "refuted",
      "target_label": "TOP-07 \u00b7 rd to ca reduction"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-09",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 38.7,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net -2 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 71/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-09 \u00b7 turing hopf wave signature"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-09",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 57.6,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 64.01%, Gemini 4 Argon 69.12%, Claude Fable 5.1 38.69%), prior 50%, net +1.33 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 79.7/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-09 \u00b7 turing hopf wave signature"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-03",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 79.9,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net +6 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 88/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "TOP-03 \u00b7 robustness fraction"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-03",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 70.0,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 61.31%, Gemini 4 Argon 79.92%, Claude Fable 5.1 66.61%), prior 50%, net +3.67 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 78.7/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "solved",
      "target_label": "TOP-03 \u00b7 robustness fraction"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-01",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 55.7,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net +1 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 77/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-01 \u00b7 mechanism discriminator"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-01",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 59.5,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 61.31%, Gemini 4 Argon 55.73%, Claude Fable 5.1 61.31%), prior 50%, net +1.67 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 76/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-01 \u00b7 mechanism discriminator"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-02",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 55.7,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net +1 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 78/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-02 \u00b7 diffusion ratio census"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-02",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 66.6,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 58.55%, Gemini 4 Argon 78.01%, Claude Fable 5.1 61.31%), prior 50%, net +3 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 74.3/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-02 \u00b7 diffusion ratio census"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-06",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 28.5,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net -4 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 60/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-06 \u00b7 reproducible topology"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-06",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 49.0,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 35.99%, Gemini 4 Argon 38.69%, Claude Fable 5.1 71.53%), prior 50%, net -0.17 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 69.7/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-06 \u00b7 reproducible topology"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-05",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 16.6,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net -7 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 54/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-05 \u00b7 wavelength scaling"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-05",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 39.6,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 26.19%, Gemini 4 Argon 61.31%, Claude Fable 5.1 33.39%), prior 50%, net -1.83 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 60.7/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-05 \u00b7 wavelength scaling"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-04",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 33.4,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net -3 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 66/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-04 \u00b7 stripe insertion blind"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-04",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 22.7,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 28.47%, Gemini 4 Argon 24.03%, Claude Fable 5.1 16.63%), prior 50%, net -5.33 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 57.7/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-04 \u00b7 stripe insertion blind"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-10",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 28.5,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net -4 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 51/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-10 \u00b7 ecological turing fairy circles"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-10",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 24.8,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 24.03%, Gemini 4 Argon 26.19%, Claude Fable 5.1 24.03%), prior 50%, net -4.83 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 53/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-10 \u00b7 ecological turing fairy circles"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu0",
      "to": "top-08",
      "agent": "fable",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 11.2,
      "prob_status": "provisional_scored",
      "prob_note": "Single-assessor provisional Delphi posterior (Claude Fable 5.1 Thinking High (single assessor, provisional)), prior 50% net -9 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 BEFORE any attempt \u2014 NOT a panel score. Resolvability 37/100 by the Problem-Scout rubric is a separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-08 \u00b7 synthetic eukaryotic turing"
    },
    {
      "from": "tu-panel",
      "to": "top-08",
      "agent": "panel",
      "label": null,
      "prob_percent": 8.2,
      "prob_status": "delphi_scored",
      "prob_note": "3-provider pooled Delphi posterior (log-odds mean; GPT 5.6 Sol 5.94%, Gemini 4 Argon 10.09%, Claude Fable 5.1 9.09%), prior 50%, net -10.5 dB, recorded 2026-10-27 before any attempt; supersedes the provisional edge. Panel resolvability mean 20/100 is the separate axis.",
      "target_status": "open",
      "target_label": "TOP-08 \u00b7 synthetic eukaryotic turing"
    }
  ]
}